Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) is providing a glimmer of hope as we open the door to 2021. Bulls, in particular analysts, are adamant that investors should see a respectable capital gain after twelve months, but not enough to entice new investors to buy. However, the bears are not backing down as they expose the gapping debt holes in the business. This article will look to provide the bearish and bullish Ford Motor stock forecast for 2021.

Table of contents

  1. Bullish side
  2. Bearish side
  3. Summary

Bullish forecasts

Analysts and price forecasts

Analysts and Ford Motor price forecasts remain slightly bullish come 2021. The analyst registry confirms the above statement as we have 12/18 suggesting hold and 5/18 recommending buy. Contrast that to the 1/18 cheerleading a sell and 0 recommending outperform or underperform. Thus, the consensus among Ford Motor analysts is to hold. If we focus on the hold investors could conclude that Ford will provide a small gain over twelve months of trading. Because hold suggests the stock is not worth buying as growth prospects look limited and sell is forecasting the company will provide a capital loss if bought now. The median price forecast of $9 confirms the hold hypothesis because if true would provide a 16.4% gain in 12 months.

Furthermore, Ford does have a low price target of $4.90 (36.6% potential loss). However, it is best that investors focus on the median. Because only one analyst is suggesting to sell, which means that price forecast is likely an outlier. However, investors should not disregard the low of $4.90 completely and should put in place stop losses before investing.

Bearish forecasts

Financials

The primary area of financial concern going into 2021 is Ford’ motors rising debt levels. Ford Motor’s debt sits at $175.230 billion. When investors look at debt, they want to know two things. First, is debt, along with the D/E ratio rising or decreasing? Second, does the business have enough cash, not profit, to service its outstanding debt? In answer to the first question, Ford’s debt pile is increasing. For example, Ford’s debt is up 12% Year on Year (YoY). Not to mention their bearish D/E ratio of 567.9%. However, the main issue is that Ford’s cash reserves total $39.3 billion, creating a net debt of approximately $136 billion. If we stop here, we get the big picture in terms of debt.

However, if we hold a microscope over the liabilities for the next 12-months then we get more information. Ford Motor’s has liabilities of $92.8 billion falling due within a year. To pay down the short-term liabilities, Ford only has $39.3 billion in cash and $9.11 billion in receivables. Consequently, creating a massive liability-cash flow disparity. Investors would want to watch Ford’s balance sheet before investing, to see if the company is turning around its nightmarish debt situation. Because if the creditors came knocking today, then Ford would require a significant re-capitalisation. Thus, from a debt level, investors should not take the bearish claims lightly. Furthermore, on top of mounting debt issues Ford is reporting negative earnings. For example, For Motor’s loss came in at $2.2 billion. Therefore, the current financial situation is more of nightmare despite the dream of a brighter future.

Summary

Overall, Ford Motor company is in a position to return a small gain to investors by the end of 2021. (Opinion not advice). However, the gain is likely only going to investors who already hold stock. The argument that Ford will provide a short-term gain to bag holders is not enough to conclude that the forecasts are bullish. Because beneath the surface lies debt-cash issues which significantly increases the risk for existing and new Ford investors.

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The information above is not financial advice. Youth Investment Group has no liability for personal financial interests or investment decisions. You should make your own investment decisions based upon your own research and what you believe is best for you.

Written by Senior Manager, Patrick McLoughlin

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