Moderna and Novavax surge ahead of 2021 – here’s what you need to know

The past two weeks have seen a large shift in investor sentiment towards these two key COVID vaccine pioneers. Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) and Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ: NVAX) have seen a recent surge in the share price. The companies saw an increase of 26.52% (NVAX) and 38.26% (MRNA) respectively over the past week of trading. The vaccine industry is becoming increasingly volatile, with Phase 3 Efficacy trials being released. This article will breakdown everything investors need to know about Novavax and Moderna stock moving into 2021.

What are analysts saying about Moderna and Novavax stock?

With the COVID vaccine industry moving closer to the distribution phase, Moderna and Novavax have entered the spotlight on Wallstreet. Here’s what analysts are saying about both vaccine developers.

Moderna

The 12 month price targets for Moderna average at $109 across the board of 19 Wallstreet analysts. This represents a downside of 28% from its current trading price. The general consensus amongst analysts averages a buy rating, with 2 sell ratings and 4 hold. Moderna has recently received price target boosts from multiple institutions, driving the stock price into a territory.

  • 12/3/2020 Bank of America – analysts at BoA boosted their 12 month price target from $105 to $150 a share. The market reacted in favour of this price increase moving the stock above the $150 bench mark.
  • 12/1/2020 Argus – analysts at Argus increased their 12 month price target astronomically, from $88 to $200 a share. Argus also changed their rating from a hold to a buy. Investors are confident this bullish target suggests Moderna still has further room to grow moving into 2020
  • 11/30/2020 Wells Fargo & Company – boost in price target from $92 to $129 a share. The company holds an equal weight rating for Moderna stock.
  • 11/25/2020 The Goldman Sachs Group – analysts increased their price target from $107 to $139 a share. Although this suggests a downside on the current price, it is clear Goldman Sachs are maintening a bullish stance on the company

Novavax

Novavax unlike Moderna, is yet to release their Phase 3 efficacy results for their COVID 19 trials. The company is known by the investor community to be supported by Billionaire Bill Gates. Here’s what analysts are saying about Novavax stock.

11/17/2020 HC Wainwright – analysts lowered their price target from $290 to $207 a share. The lower price target still maintains a buy rating and exposes upside potential of 80%+ from the current trading price.

10/22/2020 B.Riley – analysts increased the price target from $223 to $257 a share. This remains NVAX second highest price target behind JP Morgan.

8/5/2020 JP Morgan Chase & Co – analysts at JP Morgan remain the strong bulls supporting the share price. Analysts increased the 12 month price target from $105 to $275 a share. The company also increased NVAX rating to overweight suggesting it will strive within the industries it operates.

What to expect moving into 2021?

Both companies have proven to be some of the key players in the COVID vaccine race. Futhermore, investors have heavily backed both of these companies moving into 2021.

Moderna’s outlook for 2021

  • Submitted data from the Phase 3 trials assisting in the approval process with regulators around the world (US, Europe and UK). This should allow for the emergency use/license of the vaccine. 
  • Final results gained from the trials of Moderna’ vaccine against COVID-19 confirm 94% efficacy (effectiveness) 

Moderna said it has an expected 20 million doses of its vaccine ready for use in the US by the end of 2020. The US entered an agreement to purchase 100 million doses whilst also having an option to purchase an additional 400 million. Moderna’s extensive reach across multiple continents does shine light on its potential moving into 2021. The potential products in clinical development have the potential to have combined estimated sales of $77.1 billion by 2030 according to NASDAQ source.

Furthermore, the company also received $2.48 Billion US federal funds due to trumps administrations ‘Operation warp speed’. Operation Warp Speed’s goal is to produce and deliver 300 million doses of safe and effective vaccines with the initial doses available by January 2021.

Novax outlook for 2021

  • Pivotal Phase 3 trial in United Kingdom has recently completed enrollment as well as the Phase 2b efficacy trial in South Africa. US/Mexico Phase 3 trial expected to begin in the coming weeks.
  • NVAX has also been granted fast track approval by the FDA and has entered an engagement with the Commonwealth of Australia to supply 40 million doses of the vaccine. This extends its reach in the supply of their vaccine, in similar fashion to Moderna.

The 2021 revenue forecasts are expected to increase 181% year on year, from $971 million in 2020 and $2.73 Billion in 2021. This spike in the revenue forecast has a priced in resultant surge in demand from the COVID vaccine. These are impressive improvements for NVAX in comparison to its 2018-2019 results.

“Novavax is in a leading position to significantly contribute to the need for safe and efficacious vaccines that will ultimately end the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic.. We continue to make meaningful progress as we work to test, manufacture and ultimately deliver NVX-CoV2373 with unprecedented speed, as well as put partnerships in place that would ensure widespread and equitable access worldwide.”

said Stanley C. Erck, President and Chief Executive Officer, Novavax.

Summary

I am obliged to remind our viewers that this article is not financial advice but rather investment commentary from extensive research.

In conclusion, both companies have a strong path to victory moving into 2021. Analysts on both companies have shown bullish tones in the past few weeks. However NVAX holds a higher price target on average (data skewed). The outlook for Moderna holds more imminent momentum with investors peeled on any news relating to emergency use of the vaccine. NVAX are yet to release their Phase 3 efficacy data, which has placed them on the back foot for now. Both companies as suggested by their investor interest hold weight moving into 2021, however the risk with COVID-19 vaccine companies should always be priced in (opinion not advice).

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The information above is not financial advice. Youth Investment Group has no liability for personal financial interests or investment decisions. You should make your own investment decisions based upon your own research and what you believe is best for you.