Vaxart Inc (NASDAQ: VXRT) stock has seen a recent spike in investor confidence, gaining 90% over the past week. Vaxart has developed an oral vaccine for COVID-19 which has vastly differentiated itself from the competition. A recent study by Quadrant Strategies has shown that one third of people refusing to be vaccinated for COVID-19, would take an oral vaccine as an alternative to an injection. In addition, the tablet form vaccine can be distributed across the globe at room temperature, ultimately reducing logistical costs. However, it’s important to note the companies oral vaccine is in Phase 1 trials and the company still has many hurdles to jump before reaching commercialisation. Therefore, this article will breakdown what investors need to know about Vaxart’s stock forecast and why investors are buying.
Table of contents
Why the sudden interest in Vaxart stock?
Firstly, over the past quarter of trading the stock has been steadily trending downwards. The stock found a 4 month low of $5.06 a share last week before investors rallied in support. The catalyst of the rally however was the companies announcement that they will be hosting a Webinar on the Importance of T-Cell Responses for COVID-19 Vaccines. The company noted they will be discussing the “recent Phase I clinical results that suggest VXA-CoV2-1 is potentially protective against new and emerging COVID-19 strains“. This statement from Vaxart suggests the company may have data from their Phase 1 trials that suggests it is effective across all strains. Although only speculation at this point, investors were quick to add VXRT to their portfolio. Vaxart will be hosting the webinar on May 3, 12 pm E.T.
Do analysts have a buy rating on VXRT stock?
The consensus amongst 2 Wallstreet analysts retains a Buy rating, with the average 12 month forecast at $15 a share. This suggests an upside potential of 80% from the current trading price. It is clear analysts can see the bullish side to VXRT stock over the next 12 months of trading.
3/4/2021 B. Riley – analysts reiterated their Buy rating, with a 12 month price target of $13 a share. This suggests an upside potential of 62% from the current trading price.
8/12/2020 HC Wainwright – analyst Vernon T. Bernardino boosted the 12 month price from $7 to $17 a share. The firm also maintained its position on a Buy rating for the stock.
VXRT Revenue forecasts for the year ahead
The revenue forecasts for 2021 and beyond remain somewhat bullish for VXRT investors. Across the board of 3 analysts, the average forecasted revenue for 2021 currently sits at $26.35 million. This would suggest a 550% revenue increase year on year, which would come down to the success of its current trials. Looking ahead, analysts expect VXRT to generate upwards of $89 Million in revenue by 2022. Now, the bears will argue this is quite far fetched, with revenue for the third quarter of 2020 recorded at $265,000 compared to $454,000 in the third quarter of 2019. With a slowing revenue stream, it does place external pressure on VXRT management to turn this around.
However, the vaccine market is growing substantially fast. By 2024, experts suggest the vaccine market could be worth upwards of $25 Billion. If VXRT can successfully commercialise the vaccine, the sub-market for people who prefer a tablet form vaccine could be a huge opportunity for the company.
Before I begin, I am obliged to remind our viewers that this article is not financial advice but rather investment commentary from extensive research.
In conclusion, Vaxart shareholders are focusing in on the T-Cell Webinar (03 May 2021) which could provide investors positive data surrounding the performance of the vaccine in the Phase 1 trial. In particular, investors will be looking to see if the vaccine can adapt to different strains of the virus. However, the bears argue there is still so many hurdles for VXRT to jump prior to commercialisation.
Written by Tyger Fitzpatrick
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