Vaxart stock (NASDAQ: VXRT) surges after analyst sees 105% upside

Vaxart Inc (NASDAQ: VXRT) stock has seen a recent spike in investor confidence, gaining 23.81% over the past week. Vaxart has developed an oral vaccine for COVID-19 which has vastly differentiated itself from the competition. A recent study by Quadrant Strategies has shown that one third of people refusing to be vaccinated for COVID-19, would take an oral vaccine as an alternative to an injection. In addition, the tablet form vaccine can be distributed across the globe at room temperature, ultimately reducing logistical costs. However, it’s important to note the companies oral vaccine is in Phase 1 trials and the company still has many hurdles to jump before reaching commercialisation. With a bullish evaluation of $18 a share by Piper Sandler analyst Yasmeen Rahimi, this article will breakdown what investors need to know about Vaxart’s stock forecast and why investors are buying.

Why the sudden interest in Vaxart stock?

Firstly, over the past quarter of trading the stock has been steadily trending upwards. The stock found an equilibrium in May between $6-$7 a share prior to the recent rally. The catalyst of the rally however was the vastly bullish target from Piper Sandler analyst Yasmeen Rahimi. The target at $18 a share represents an upside potential of 105% which ignited volumes in Fridays trading session.

“VXRT is a clinical-stage biotech developing seven oral vaccines: five in the clinic for COVID-19, norovirus, and influenza; and two in preclinical stages for RSV and HPV. At the core is VAAST, a thoughtfully designed, novel adenoviral type5 + TLR3-adjuvant platform, providing six key advantages (pgs 9-11).

Notably, Ad5 is validated in 200 clinical studies, de-risking the vector for approval due to regulator familiarity. Additionally, VAASThas been significantly de-risked through five clinical datasets showing safety and efficacy in 580 healthy patients, increasing our conviction in an insulated pipeline with potent and safe drug candidates, which gives a high success rate to seven catalysts through 2022.”

Piper Sandler analyst Yasmeen Rahimi commented according to StreetInsider

What is Wallstreet saying about VXRT’s valuation?

The consensus amongst 3 Wallstreet analysts retains a Buy rating, with the average 12 month forecast at $16 a share. This suggests an upside potential of 80% from the current trading price. It is clear analysts can see the bullish side to VXRT stock over the next 12 months of trading.

Piper Sandler 6/11/2021 – analyst Yasmeen Rahimi initiated coverage with an overweight rating and a street high price target of $18 a share.

B. Riley 3/4/2021 – analysts reiterated their Buy rating, with a 12 month price target of $13 a share. This suggests an upside potential of 62% from the current trading price.

HC Wainwright 8/12/2020– analyst Vernon T. Bernardino boosted the 12 month price from $7 to $17 a share. The firm also maintained its position on a Buy rating for the stock.

Stone / United Kingdom – February 11 2020: VAXART biotechnology company logo on the brochure with viral masks, syringe, and pills. Selective focus. Concept photo.

VXRT Revenue forecasts for the year ahead

The revenue forecasts for 2021 and beyond remain somewhat bullish for VXRT investors. Across the board of 3 analysts, the average forecasted revenue for 2021 currently sits at $3.72 million. This would suggest a 8% revenue decrease year on year. However looking ahead, analysts expect VXRT to generate upwards of $89 Million in revenue by 2022. Now, the bears will argue this is quite far fetched, with revenue for the third quarter of 2020 recorded at $265,000 compared to $454,000 in the third quarter of 2019. With a slowing revenue stream, it does place external pressure on VXRT management to turn this around.

However, the vaccine market is growing substantially fast. By 2024, experts suggest the vaccine market could be worth upwards of $25 Billion. If VXRT can successfully commercialise the vaccine, the sub-market for people who prefer a tablet form vaccine could be a huge opportunity for the company.

Summary

Before I begin, I am obliged to remind our viewers that this article is not financial advice but rather investment commentary from extensive research.

In conclusion, the bullish consensus on Wallstreet with a $18 target was a strong catalyst for Friday’s strong momentum. In addition, strong revenue outlook for 2022 is a bi-product of its commercialisation potential of Pipeline drugs. However, the bears argue there is still so many hurdles for VXRT to jump prior to commercialisation. We will likely see further volatility over the next few months as Vaxart look to commence their Phase 2 COVID vaccine trials.

Written by Tyger Fitzpatrick

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