Novavax, Inc.(NASDAQ: NVAX) has seen an incredible year in stock price growth, increasing 307% over the past 12 months. The companies COVID-19 vaccine saw the market rally behind NVAX, posting a 52 week high in February of $331.68. The company announced yesterday that their COVID-19 vaccine NVX-CoV2373 demonstrated 100% protection against moderate and severe disease and a 90.4% efficacy overall in the Phase 3 trial. In addition, the vaccine was well tolerated and poses a threat to competing vaccine candidates such as Moderna and Pfizer. This article will breakdown analysts forecasts and our take on the Novavax stock in 2021.
What are analysts forecasting for NVAX stock?
According to MarketBeat data, the 12 month price targets set by Wallstreet analysts suggest an average price of $216.33. This suggests an upside potential of 5% over the next 12 months. The more bullish price targets suggest targets as high as $294 (42% upside potential) and more conservative targets such as JP Morgans $161 target (23% downside).
To put these targets into perspective, our article in August this year noted the average price target from analysts was $132. This is a 63% increase in average price forecasts in the space of 9 months. Here are the most recent price targets from Wallstreet institutions:
JP Morgan 5/18/2021 – Analyst Eric Joseph lowered the 12 month price target last month after the Q1 results. The analyst highlighted concerns regarding the manufacturing of the vaccine at a large scale. The analyst lowered the 12 month price target to $161 a share, the streets lowest target.
B. Riley 5/12/2021 – Analyst Mayank Mamtan lowered the 12 month price target to $286 a share maintaining an overall Buy rating on the stock. The analyst reiterated their confidence that positive Phase 3 data will initiate support for EUA approval across multiple countries.
HC Wainwright 5/12/2021 – Analyst Vernon Bernardino lowered the companies 12 month price to a Street High of $294 a share. The analyst noted Novavax is ““demonstrating long-term vision that ensures a future for widespread distribution and adoption of its COVID-19 vaccines.” according to Pulse 2.
What are the revenue forecasts for Novavax stock?
Firstly, the revenue performance in the first quarter of 2021 saw NVAX generate $447 Million. This growth represents a revenue increase YOY of over 13,000%. Looking at the remainder of 2021, revenue forecasts are expect Novavax to generate $2.16 Billion. Analysts expect revenue growth to carry over to 2022 with an average revenue forecast of $5.23 Billion. This is an impressive improvement for NVAX in comparison to its previous results. This also highlights the lucrative potential of the COVID-19 vaccine market.
However it’s worth noting these forecasts will continue to change as we move closer to 2022. As we know, the COVID-19 vaccine industry on Wallstreet remains one of the more volatile. This is the risk investors take when entering the newly founded COVID-19 vaccine sub-market.
The risks associated with the vaccine market
To begin with, Novavax stock forecasts from analysts definitely illuminate the long term potential the company holds for capitalisation. However, investors need to understand what data driven volatility means and how it effects the stock price. Firstly, data driven volatility is the market behaviour experienced when certain trial data is expected to be released. Speculation is the key driver of this and is why the COVID vaccine market is so attractive (risk reward).
With Phase 3 data now released to the public, all eyes will be on how efficiently the company can successfully submit EUA’s to the United States FDA as well as the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in Europe. We can expect further volatility as the company discloses more information about the application in the near future.
Before I begin, I am obliged to remind our viewers that this article is not financial advice but rather investment commentary from extensive research.
In conclusion, the forecasts provided from Wallstreet analysts maintain a bullish venom. The remainder of this year will likely decide how effectively Novavax can enter the market, especially after producing positive and well tolerated Phase 3 trial data. Novavax will be a stock to watch for the remainder of 2021.
The information above is not financial advice. Youth Investment Group has no liability for personal financial interests or investment decisions. You should make your own investment decisions based upon your own research and what you believe is best for you.
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