Ocugen Inc (NASDAQ: OCGN) is a US based bio-pharma which has primarily focused its research on developing a cure for blindness disease. In 2020, Ocugen shifted its efforts to distribute a COVID-19 vaccine with Indian partner Bharat Biotech. Ocugen’s CEO Shankar Musunuri made it clear that the company strategises to disrupt the current COVID-19 vaccine market with Covaxin.
Investors first capitalised on OCGN stock in February this year, after the company announced its definitive partnership with Bharat Bio Tech. The terms of this agreement determined that Ocugen will receive a 45% cut of the sales of Covaxin made in the US and Canada if the vaccine is approved.
The companies vaccine hype caused an uptrend in investor sentiment has driven the OCGN share price 2,073% higher over the past 12 months. With many questions to be answered, this article will breakdown everything investors need to know about the Ocugen stock forecast over the next 5 years.
How is OCGN stock currently performing?
The price movement of OCGN has been highly volatile over the past 6 months. More recently, the company disclosed they will no longer pursue an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for Covaxin after advice from the FDA. However, Ocugen did also announce a rolling submission to Health Canada. Health Canada has begun a review of the safety and efficacy of COVAXIN in recent trial data. Consequentially, Ocugen is now pursuing a Biologics License Application (BLA) to distribute Covaxin across the US.
Ocugen stock has a new street high target
Noble Financial analyst Robert LeBoyer initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $15 price target. The price target suggests an upside of 114% from the current trading price. The analyst noted “Ocugen has in-licensed Covaxin, a whole-virion vaccine for Covid-19 that has advantages over the the current vaccines in use today” according to theFly. The news gives long term investors confidence in the stock despite the recent set backs.
LeBoyer’s target is now Wallstreets highest after Ocugen stock received multiple downgrades last month. For example, H.C Wainwright analyst Swayampakula Ramakanth dropped the firms 12 month price target from $12 to $10 a share last quarter.
However, Ramakanth is still bullish on Ocugen stock. The analyst noted in a recent report that Ocugen’s Covaxin can still help address “this much needed public health concern”.
Analysts forecast $135 Million in revenue by 2022
Firstly, it is important to understand how Ocugen will generate revenue from Covaxin if approved in the US/Canada. Ocugen’s agreement with Bharat Biotech states Ocugen will receive 45% cut of the sales made in the US and Canada.
The associated risk is that in the case Ocugen does not receive approval, the company will remain a pre-revenue company. Furthermore, the application for the BLA is going to push the forecasted revenue back due to a longer approval process. With this in mind, Wallstreet analysts expect that Ocugen will not generate any revenue for the remainder of this year.
In 2022, analysts forecast OCGN to generate $135 Million in revenue. The forecasted sales are based on the success of a Covaxin approval in the US or Canada. Interestingly, prior to the companies decision to pursue a BLA, analysts expected OCGN to generate upwards of $900 Million by 2022. The steep revenue downgrade is a bi-product of the delays that will be issued as a result of the BLA route the company is taking compared to an EUA.
OCU400 to possibly see approval in 2025/26
What is OCU400? According to Ocugen, OCU400 is a novel gene therapy that has the potential to be broadly effective in restoring retinal integrity and function. This therapy would look to combat a range of genetically diverse inherited retinal diseases. OCU400 is unlikely to challenge approval until 2025/26 according to Ocugen.
With blindness disease at the core of its business, there is still a significant gap between the company seeking approval and generating revenues from these therapies.
What can Short interest tell investors? OCGN stock forecast
As of August 13, Ocugen has a short float of 27.94% which is the highest recorded this year. Generally speaking, a short float below 10% suggests the stock has a bullish sentiment while over 10% indicates a higher level of pessimism towards the stock. The high levels of float shorted is an indicator on the bearish sentiment currently driving OCGN stock downwards.
The Bottom Line – Ocugen stock forecast 2025
Overall, the BLA approach to approving Covaxin in the United States is a long term play. Unfortunately for speculators, the short term catalysts look slim with revenue not expected until next year.
Nevertheless, if Covaxin can gain approval in Canada we may possibly see a turnaround for Ocugen. We will continue to update our viewers on Ocugen updates on the Ocugen stock forecast as we move through 2021.
The information above is not financial advice. Youth Investment Group has no liability for personal financial interests or investment decisions. You should make your own investment decisions based upon your own research and what you believe is best for you.
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