Over the past year, Lucid Motors has established their brand as a true player in the luxury EV space, after completing a reverse merger with CCIV. The merger gained serious investor momentum, with the CCIV ticker reaching heights of $64.86 during the 2020 SPAC boom. Now as a combined publicly traded company, Lucid investors have taken a beating as the wider EV market has entered bearish terrain.
Unfortunately for Lucid Investors, the pain has continued into earnings season as the company missed its expected Q4 EPS and lowered their 2022 forecasted production. Lucid updated 2022 production guidance to 12,000-14,000 vehicles vs. 20,000 earlier. The question remains, can Lucid bounce back after a rough start to 2022 and what are the catalysts through to 2025? Here’s what investors need to know about the Lucid Stock Forecast.
Why has LCID Stock gained so much attention?
A unique aspect of Lucid Motors and their management is that they have always set out to take on the Goliath EV maker Tesla. Even at the very top, CEO and Founder, Rawlinson spent time as an engineering executive at Tesla prior to starting the Lucid Motors enterprise. More recently, Rawlinson highlighted that both Tesla and Lucid make their Electric Vehicles from scratch, down to the battery packs, software and even the transmissions.
Lucid Begins EV Sales and Has $2.4 Billion in its pipeline
In Lucid’s first full year of operations in 2022, the company expects to deliver 12,000-14,000 vehicles. This of course came as a disappointment to investors as Lucid had noted in Q3 that they were confident 2022 would see the production of 20,000 vehicles. The equivalent would have generated Lucid $2.2 Billion off vehicle sales alone, so the lowered guidance is a blow to investor confidence. Lucid CEO Rawlinson highlighted that supply constraints are at the core of the lowered guidance.
“Looking ahead, we’re updating our outlook for 2022 production to a range of 12,000 to 14,000 vehicles. This reflects the extraordinary supply chain and logistics challenges we’ve encountered and our unrelenting focus on delivering the highest-quality products. We remain confident in our ability to capture the tremendous opportunities ahead given our technology leadership and strong demand for our cars,”said Peter Rawlinson, Lucid’s CEO and CTO.
Lucid delivered 125 vehicles generating $21.3 million in revenue in the fourth quarter. To date however, Lucid has delivered more than double that amount with 300 vehicles delivered to customers as Lucid looks to fill its large reservation line of 25,000. Another positive investors can take away is the quality of the Lucid Air and its reception by customers. Lucid was awarded the 2022 MotorTrend Car of the Year, and customers have given extremely positive feedback to date on the companies EV model.
LCID Stock Forecast: What Is Expected of Lucid Motors by 2025
Lucid’s analyst day presentation back in May 2021 highlighted the companies strategic plans to take on the luxury EV market over the next few years. In particular, Lucid expects to deliver 42,000 luxury, all electric Lucid Air’s in 2025. But that’s not all.
Total forecasted deliveries for 2025 are estimated at 135,000, which is expected to generate Lucid Motors $13.985 Billion. To put this into perspective, Tesla delivered 206,421 EV vehicles in the second quarter of this year alone. The displacement between Lucid’s forecasts and Tesla’s results show why Tesla is the current leader in EV revenue.
Nevertheless, considering that Lucid is starting deliveries behind the 8 ball, its forecasted growth year-on-year is still strong on paper. The Lucid Gravity SUV model will do the heavy lifting over the next four years according to the company.
Lucid will target a potential market worth $733.2 billion in 2026
The company aims to target the luxury EV market as the world continues to transition into more energy efficient solutions. The global luxury car market could be worth somewhere north of $730 Billion by 2026 according to Lucid. The tailwinds over the next 5-10 years will be driven by the adoption of EV’s, which is going to have a direct impact on the LCID Stock Forecast.
With the tailwind of EV innovation in full swing, the company aims to address unmet needs and revolutionize the EV luxury submarket. For example, the Lucid Air is expected to hold 0.5% of the global EV market share by 2025. Michael Klein Chairman and CEO of CCIV noted prior to the SPAC merger that he is confident the Lucid Air will significantly disrupt the EV market over the coming years..
How does Lucid’s start compare to Tesla’s beginning?
Investors first made the link between the two companies as Lucid Motors CEO & CTO is Peter Rawlinson spent time as an engineering executive at Tesla. Rawlinson has made the companies intentions clear. Lucid will challenge the EV luxury market share EV giant Tesla currently dominate
In 2010, Tesla’s first year as a publicly traded company – they delivered 1,500 Tesla Roadsters to customers across 31 countries. The substantial difference in both companies deliveries (first full publicly traded year) is the tailwind of growth and demand for EV’s expected in 2022 compared to 11 years ago. In fact, the forecasted CAGR between 2019 and 2027 in terms of Global EV market value is 20% according to Statistica.
Therefore, a better indicator of Lucid’s success in disrupting market share against Tesla will be the success of the Lucid Air launch. Lucid expects the Lucid Air to take 0.6% of the global EV market share in 2022. It will be crucial for Lucid to deliver on this first market share target, which will establish their name as a true player in the EV luxury market. By capturing marketshare particularly in North America next year, Lucid aims to steal market share off Tesla’s luxury S model.
The Bottom Line – LCID Stock Forecast 2025
In summary, Lucid Motors is entering into an exciting phase of growth for the company with deliveries now a reality. There is no doubt Lucid Motors will continue to challenge the likes of Tesla in the Luxury EV sub-market, especially following the successful launch of the Lucid Air.
However, Lucid Motors also looks to be facing the same supply constraints we have seen across the wider tech sector. The stocks sell-off following its Q4 results will hurt investor confidence, but is also a reflection of how investors are perceiving the wider market for the remainder of 2022.
As noted above, a key indictor investors will be focusing on is the success of the Lucid Air model in the North American market over the next 12-18 months. Lastly, we will continue to update our viewers on the Lucid Stock Price Forecast as we move through 2022.
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The content above is strictly for informational purposes only and is not financial advice nor does it constitute a recommendation. Youth Investment Group has no liability for personal financial interests or investment decisions. You should make your own investment decisions based upon your own research and what you believe is best for you.