To say Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) has had a brilliant year trading on Wallstreet would be an understatement. The COVID-19 vaccine candidate has provided investors immense returns over the past 12-18 months gaining 333% YTD.
Moderna’s strong revenue boost in 2021 has been derived from the overall depth of the COVID-19 vaccine market, which is expected to grow to $132.3 billion by 2025.
Investors are now asking what the Moderna stock forecast is for the remainder of 2021 and beyond. Where will Moderna be by 2025? This article will breakdown everything investors need to know.
What is Wallstreet saying about Moderna stock (NASDAQ:MRNA)?
Moderna is one of the strongest performing stocks in 2021, gaining 572% over the past 12 months. The general sentiment across the board of 18 Wallstreet analysts is bullish with majority Buy ratings.
However, MRNA’s sharp price action has outperformed analysts price targets with the average target staggering at $290.83. Despite Moderna’s recent success, analysts are now sitting on the side of caution with revenues expected to plateau by 2023.
Piper Sandler moves to the sideline on Moderna stock forecast
Piper Sandler analyst Edward Tenthoff downgraded Moderna to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $445 a share following the Q2 earnings. Tenthoff forecasts Moderna’s Spikevax revenues to grow to $19.5B in 2021.
Despite the boosted target, the analyst noted the recent uptrend “fully values Moderna’s Covid vaccine” according to theFly. In other words, Moderna’s future cash flows from the vaccine have been priced into the companies market capitalisation or share price.
Jefferies Financial Group increases revenue guidance
Senior research analyst Michael Yee recently boosted Moderna’s 12 month price target to $250 a share. Michael Yee noted “We see 2021 guidance increasing to $21 billion from $19 billion and expect positive commentary around boosters in development and preparing for 2022 orders”. Furthermore, the senior analyst dubbed Moderna the “Tesla of Biotechs” remaining bullish in comparison to Piper Sandler.
Revenue outlook for Moderna
Firstly, Moderna’s success in bringing its COVID-19 vaccine to the global market has fuelled immense revenue growth over the past 12 months. With the vast demand for the COVID-19 vaccines across the globe, Moderna has seen a year-on-year revenue growth of 6467.16% based on the companies recent earnings report.
This elite revenue growth also has a high visibility over the next 12-24 months. Moderna currently have signed Advance Purchase Agreements worth over $20 Billion for FY 2021 and $12 Billion in FY 2022.
In the second quarter of this year, Moderna generated $4.4 billion in revenue. The majority of the Q2 revenue was derived from the sale of 199 million COVID vaccines. With a strong revenue performance and high visibility, analysts are expecting further growth over the next 2 years.
Across the board of 17 Wallstreet analysts, the average revenue forecast for 2021 sits at $18.32 Billion. As discussed previously, Jeffries Financial holds the highest revenue forecast at $21 Billion for the fiscal year. Looking ahead, analysts expect revenue to plateau in 2022 with an average forecast suggesting MRNA to generate $15.35 Billion.
The key drivers of this revenue growth includes the companies Advanced Purchase Agreements (APA’S) that include a pipeline of sales worth $19.2 Billion. In addition, Moderna has begun signing APA’s for 2022 and 2023, further extending the companies revenue visibility.
What’s in Moderna’s pipeline?
Moderna’s pipeline boasts a vast portfolio of vaccines including the COVID-19 vaccine alongside vaccines against HIV, Influenza and many other diseases. However, the companies pipeline also includes Cancer vaccines, Intratumoral Immuno-Oncology therapies and Intracellular Therapeutics.
This extensive list of treatments provides investors some confidence in the long term outlook of the company. The revenue growth experienced from the COVID-19 vaccine will also assist the company expand their studies on current and future therapies and vaccine efforts.
The Bottom Line – Moderna stock forecast 2025
In summary, Moderna has outperformed both the market and analysts expectations in 2021. In addition, the company looks to maintain the beneficiary of high vaccine demand across the globe, with revenue expected to reach $18 Billion for the fiscal year.
However, MRNA is currently trading at an all time high suggesting investors and fund managers will be looking to cash in on its yearly performance. In addition, some analysts see the current valuation as priced in for future cash flows from the vaccine. Nevertheless, the bulls maintain that potential booster vaccinations will continue to provide longer term visibility over the next 5 years.
We will continue to monitor the price movement of Moderna stock and update our viewers on the Moderna stock forecast for 2025.
Written by Tyger Fitzpatrick, Founder of Youth Investment Group.
The information above is not financial advice. Youth Investment Group has no liability for personal financial interests or investment decisions. You should make your own investment decisions based upon your own research and what you believe is best for you.
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